Country:
Implementing Entity:
Partners:
Beneficiaries:
For more information:
Using scenarios to make projections for selected indicators from the 2030 Agenda
Objective
Use forecasts and scenario analysis to estimate the future of the SDGs, especially in the context of data shortages resulting from conflict.
Overview
The lack of accurate and up-to-date statistical data is one of the main challenges faced during the preparation of the 2024 VNR in Yemen. This is due to the exceptional security situation in Yemen, which prevented conducting field surveys and led to a decline in statistical capacities, especially in monitoring and evaluating SDG indicators. To fill this gap during VNR preparation, international data sources, forecasting and scenario analysis were used.
Scenario analysis utilized the International Futures tool developed by the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. The tool is an open-source platform that covers 188 countries and relies on time series data to simulate models about the future of development. The Government of Yemen has previously used this tool to understand the impact of conflict and climate change on development.
The Yemen VNR report included forecasts and projections for selected indicators that compared the current path scenario with the development push scenario for 2030, 2040 and 2050.
The current path is a baseline that shows development patterns based on a business-as-usual scenario. Its results are based on dynamic projections of the interactions between different systems. The current path scenario assumes that the conflict in Yemen and its future risks will remain a concern, but does not expect major escalations or renewed fighting. It also includes assumptions of the impact of climate change. This scenario helps to understand the development trajectory and how interventions can achieve a certain level of improvement.
The development push scenario is ambitious, but realistic and achievable, simulating successfully improving sustainable development in Yemen and the required political interventions. The VNR report listed the expected impact of such interventions in governance, agriculture and food security, economic development, human capacity and infrastructure.
Challenges
- Challenges arising from the overall security, economic and political situation and their consequences on legitimacy and state institutions
- Fragmentation of institutions, including statistical institutions
- Scarcity of financial resources
- Weak institutional and human capacity-building