Prioritizing SDG targets for 2026–2030 through an integrated structural analysis

Objective

To identify priority SDG targets for the development trajectory of Tunisia towards 2030, with the aim of focusing government action on strategic priorities that drive broader transformation and optimizing the use of public resources.

Overview

The 2026 VNR of Tunisia supports strategic prioritization towards 2030. It presents this exercise as aligned with the 2026–2030 Development Plan of Tunisia and with the social, economic and environmental pillars of sustainable development. The VNR uses an integrated transformation model, together with a complementary sectoral assessment involving expert review and consultation, to support the identification of priority SDG targets for 2026–2030. The model combines:
•    The three sustainable development pillars, giving priority to social progress, supported by economic and environmental resilience.
•    The six transformation areas of the 2023 Global Sustainable Development Report, namely: human well-being and capabilities; just and sustainable economies; food systems and nutrition; energy decarbonization and universal access; urban and peri-urban development; and global environmental commons. The 2026–2030 national development plan of Tunisia covers the corresponding policy areas.
•    Four acceleration levers, drawn from the 2026–2030 Development Plan, namely: governance and institutional capacity, innovation, development financing, and partnerships.
Using the SDG Synergies approach, the VNR examines positive and negative interactions among the transformation areas, development pillars and acceleration levers, identifying interventions that can generate trade-offs or synergies across several SDGs. Two matrices support this analysis:
•    The first examines the effects of the six transformation areas on the social, economic and environmental pillars.
•    The second assesses how the four acceleration levers can reinforce positive effects and help address trade-offs across the six transformation areas.
The VNR states that the assessment of interactions, synergies and trade-offs and the assignment of scores¹ in the two structural-analysis matrices were informed largely by the work of 17 interministerial SDG working groups and evidence generated during the VNR review process (covering the period 2021–2025). These scores indicate whether action in one development area supports or undermines another area.
To identify priority intervention areas and inform public action, the analysis is applied to the 17 SDGs, classifying each goal according to two dimensions: its influence, defined as its ability to act as a lever and drive progress across other goals, and its dependence, defined as its exposure to trade-offs between sectors and external shocks. The SDGs are grouped into:
•    Engines, which serve as key drivers for broader transformation: SDGs 9, 16 and 17.
•    Relays (or nexus areas), where strong interdependencies and trade-offs occur: SDGs 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12 and 13.
•    Impact goals, which measure ultimate development outcomes in terms of well-being, inclusion and environmental sustainability: SDGs 1, 3, 5, 10, 14 and 15.
This classification provides the basis for two complementary pathways for prioritizing SDG targets with a view to focusing public action on strategic priorities for acceleration, informing future development tracks and optimizing resource allocation:
•    The first applies the integrated transformation model to identify 16 national strategic targets for 2026–2030. These comprise four engine targets related to institutions, domestic resources, policy coherence and digital access; nine relay targets covering water, energy, skills, employment, food systems, climate resilience, waste, urban planning and infrastructure; and three impact targets relating to social protection, universal health coverage and inclusion.
•    The second is based on assessments conducted by the 17 working groups to identify sectoral priority targets. Targets were assessed against three criteria: relevance to national priorities; institutional feasibility; and catalytic potential. The scores were standardized using Z-scores to support comparisons within each SDG. The two leading targets for each SDG were selected, producing 34 sectoral priorities.² 
When the two sets of 16 and 34 targets are combined, eight targets appear in both sets, producing 42 distinct priority targets overall. The eight overlapping targets constitute the strategic core and are given particular importance because they were identified through both approaches. They are:
•    1.3: Social protection
•    3.8: Universal health coverage
•    4.4: Skills for employment and entrepreneurship
•    6.4: Water-use efficiency and sustainable withdrawals
•    7.2: Renewable energy
•    9.1: Quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure
•    10.2: Social, economic and political inclusion
•    16.6: Effective, accountable and transparent institutions
 

¹The methodology uses a scale ranging from -3 (strong negative interaction) to +3 (strong positive synergy).

²SDG 3 was an exception to the general rule of selecting the two targets with the highest Z-scores. Target 3.4 was retained through deliberation despite its lower ranking.