Designing scenarios for the future of sustainable development until 2030

Objective

To anticipate the future of sustainable development in Iraq until 2030 through scenario-based planning that guides appropriate policymaking.

Overview

The VNR was based on an assessment of the current state of development to ensure future continuity. The report included a dedicated chapter on foresight for sustainable development in Iraq and the formulation of relevant policies. The chapter outlined three scenarios regarding the country's performance on SDGs up to 2030, namely:
 

1. The baseline scenario: which assumes continuation of current trends with no major changes, maintaining the pace of reform and existing challenges. Under this scenario, Iraq is expected to achieve 40–50 per cent of the SDGs.
2. The pessimistic scenario: which assumes a sharp drop in crude oil prices and worsening political and security crises, resulting in the achievement of less than 30 per cent of the SDGs.
3. The reform scenario: which presents alternative development pathways through constructive efforts towards the 2030 Agenda, assuming an improved investment climate and deep economic reforms, resulting in the achievement of 70–80 per cent of the SDGs.

These scenarios will be used as a strategic planning and decision-making tool in future sustainable development processes. They will inform the update of the national development plan and the national SDG framework, guiding public policies and investments towards more sustainable and resilient pathways. The scenarios will continue to be updated periodically and expanded to include key sectors. National capacities in the analysis of future trends will be strengthened in cooperation with international partners, enhancing the ability of Iraq to plan proactively and address upcoming development challenges.
 

Challenges

The data access challenge was addressed through the use of the economic and social survey, which provided some of the required data.

Funding

Implementation Phase

Guiding Principles